Prague Spring, Summer War
Jul. 17th, 2011 08:27 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
gridloreDoing some Wiki surfing this morning and have come up with a scary alternate history.
What If... Prague Spring had led to World War III?
We start in Hungary, 1956. In the wake of the 1956 revolution János Kádár uses a lighter hand than he did in our time line. He doesn't execute the reformers, but instead expels them from the party and gives them long prison terms. The Soviets, distracted by rising tensions along the border with China accept this compromise. Kádár is forced by popular pressure to continue reforms and in 1959 announces that Hungary is no longer an active member of the Warsaw Pact (similar to what France did with NATO in 1966.) In Romania, Nicolae Ceaușescu takes power as scheduled. What a lot of people don't know about him is that for the first decade of his rule he was a reformer, pushing for more openness and market freedom, and withdrawing Romania from active participation in the Warsaw Pact in 1967.
Alexander Dubček takes power in Czechoslovakia on 5 January 1968 and begins his reforms. The Soviets, afraid of losing yet another buffer state, make it clear that no deviance from the Party line (as defined by Brezhnev) would be tolerated. Ceaușescu and dissident elements of the Hungarian government assure Dubček that he will have military support should it come to that. Quiet back-channel communication is made with NATO through Austria.
On 22 July, 1968 the government of János Kádár is purged in what is remember as "The Bloody Session" of the Hungarian Socialist Workers' Party Congress. Reformers, led by the recently freed Imre Nagy seize power. Nagy, 72 years old and frail from years of abuse in prison, electrifies the Party Congress with a thunderous speech condemning the Soviet Union's domination of Eastern Europe. The scene replayed around the world was Nagy shouting "Socialism? Yes! But socialism of our own choosing, of our own free will, and socialism with the support and consent of the people, not imposed by a power no better than the Nazis!"
Brezhnev was not amused.
10 August, 1968. Hungary, Romania, and Czechoslovakia withdraw from the Warsaw Pact and sign a mutual defense treaty, creating the Central European Alliance. Two days later the Soviet Union and the remaining Warsaw Pact members invade. They soon find that the CEA was more than ready for them. Arms had been distributed, villages fortified, bridges wired for demolition, and nationalistic fever ran high. The attacks bogged down, with massive partisan activity raising havoc on supply lines and command groups. In the midst of this, the United States announced it would begin flying humanitarian supplies to Prague and Budapest, even offering Soviet officers the opportunity to inspect the cargoes. On 21 August, two USAF C-141 Starlifters were shot down by an East German missile battery. In response, West German F-4 Wild Weasels destroyed the missile site. The next day the CEA formally declared war on the USSR and the Warsaw Pact nations, and appealed to NATO and the UN for assistance. Fearing that he was losing the initiative, Brezhnev order the invasion of Western Europe.
World War III had started.
The big question of course is who goes nuclear first? I'll leave to the comments.
But a sideshow that could prove really interesting is Vietnam. Remember, we didn't invade the North or blockade Hai Phong because we didn't want to escalate a potential conflict with the Soviets. Well, now we're at war with them. Since we had 536,000 troops in Vietnam in 1968, I can easily see General Abrams being told "the gloves are off, begin unrestricted warfare against North Vietnam. End this." You could also see Kim Il-Sung (who in 1968 was as close to the Soviets as he ever was) using the "distraction" of a general war in Europe to launch a Second War of Unification against the South.
The wild card here is the dedication of the non-Russian WP forces. We know now that morale and training was pretty awful in these forces. In an actual war, how many Polish and East German battalions would just dissolve? Mutiny would be a real threat, especially in East German formations ordered to attack West German formations. The US army would have a distinct advantage in that many of its officers and NCOs would have recent combat experience in Vietnam, and be better equipped to lead their troops through the first vital days of the war.
The home front is going to be interesting. In March, President Johnson announced he would not seek re-election. This was as much about his failing health as his low popularity. '68 was also the height of the anti-war movement. How would America react to sudden war with the Soviet Union? How many hippies would suddenly turn up at recruiting stations, or at least admit that this time we were attacked? What happens in the 1968 Presidential election? Nixon was campaigning on a platform of ending US involvement in Vietnam.
Interesting alternate, I think. Comments?
What If... Prague Spring had led to World War III?
We start in Hungary, 1956. In the wake of the 1956 revolution János Kádár uses a lighter hand than he did in our time line. He doesn't execute the reformers, but instead expels them from the party and gives them long prison terms. The Soviets, distracted by rising tensions along the border with China accept this compromise. Kádár is forced by popular pressure to continue reforms and in 1959 announces that Hungary is no longer an active member of the Warsaw Pact (similar to what France did with NATO in 1966.) In Romania, Nicolae Ceaușescu takes power as scheduled. What a lot of people don't know about him is that for the first decade of his rule he was a reformer, pushing for more openness and market freedom, and withdrawing Romania from active participation in the Warsaw Pact in 1967.
Alexander Dubček takes power in Czechoslovakia on 5 January 1968 and begins his reforms. The Soviets, afraid of losing yet another buffer state, make it clear that no deviance from the Party line (as defined by Brezhnev) would be tolerated. Ceaușescu and dissident elements of the Hungarian government assure Dubček that he will have military support should it come to that. Quiet back-channel communication is made with NATO through Austria.
On 22 July, 1968 the government of János Kádár is purged in what is remember as "The Bloody Session" of the Hungarian Socialist Workers' Party Congress. Reformers, led by the recently freed Imre Nagy seize power. Nagy, 72 years old and frail from years of abuse in prison, electrifies the Party Congress with a thunderous speech condemning the Soviet Union's domination of Eastern Europe. The scene replayed around the world was Nagy shouting "Socialism? Yes! But socialism of our own choosing, of our own free will, and socialism with the support and consent of the people, not imposed by a power no better than the Nazis!"
Brezhnev was not amused.
10 August, 1968. Hungary, Romania, and Czechoslovakia withdraw from the Warsaw Pact and sign a mutual defense treaty, creating the Central European Alliance. Two days later the Soviet Union and the remaining Warsaw Pact members invade. They soon find that the CEA was more than ready for them. Arms had been distributed, villages fortified, bridges wired for demolition, and nationalistic fever ran high. The attacks bogged down, with massive partisan activity raising havoc on supply lines and command groups. In the midst of this, the United States announced it would begin flying humanitarian supplies to Prague and Budapest, even offering Soviet officers the opportunity to inspect the cargoes. On 21 August, two USAF C-141 Starlifters were shot down by an East German missile battery. In response, West German F-4 Wild Weasels destroyed the missile site. The next day the CEA formally declared war on the USSR and the Warsaw Pact nations, and appealed to NATO and the UN for assistance. Fearing that he was losing the initiative, Brezhnev order the invasion of Western Europe.
World War III had started.
The big question of course is who goes nuclear first? I'll leave to the comments.
But a sideshow that could prove really interesting is Vietnam. Remember, we didn't invade the North or blockade Hai Phong because we didn't want to escalate a potential conflict with the Soviets. Well, now we're at war with them. Since we had 536,000 troops in Vietnam in 1968, I can easily see General Abrams being told "the gloves are off, begin unrestricted warfare against North Vietnam. End this." You could also see Kim Il-Sung (who in 1968 was as close to the Soviets as he ever was) using the "distraction" of a general war in Europe to launch a Second War of Unification against the South.
The wild card here is the dedication of the non-Russian WP forces. We know now that morale and training was pretty awful in these forces. In an actual war, how many Polish and East German battalions would just dissolve? Mutiny would be a real threat, especially in East German formations ordered to attack West German formations. The US army would have a distinct advantage in that many of its officers and NCOs would have recent combat experience in Vietnam, and be better equipped to lead their troops through the first vital days of the war.
The home front is going to be interesting. In March, President Johnson announced he would not seek re-election. This was as much about his failing health as his low popularity. '68 was also the height of the anti-war movement. How would America react to sudden war with the Soviet Union? How many hippies would suddenly turn up at recruiting stations, or at least admit that this time we were attacked? What happens in the 1968 Presidential election? Nixon was campaigning on a platform of ending US involvement in Vietnam.
Interesting alternate, I think. Comments?
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no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 15:52 (UTC)Whyncha post this over at![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-community.gif)
althistory, see what comes up.
There's something vaguely fishy somewhere, but I can't put my finger on it. Certainly Tito did give Moscow the finger - as, of course, did Mao… but I suspect the KGB would play a deeper role here.
Yet the idea is fascinating, and does sound plausible. Hungary cast a longer shadow than most Westerners realized.
no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 16:14 (UTC)There would be a war of shadows of course, but Brezhnev was far more likely to engage direct action. He didn't trust the KGB.
no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 17:48 (UTC)Then I remembered something about Soviet doctrine from Red Storm Rising (not the best source, but hey).
What are the odds that the Soviets would use their massive *chemical* arsenal against the CEA?
If they do, remember that study referred to in Red Storm Rising. No matter *who* wins, the areas where the chemical weapons were used are going to be useless and worse for a long, long time.
no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 18:15 (UTC)One of the fundamental agreements in NATO was "An attack on one is an attack on all.". In this scenario, while the CEA and NATO are fighting on the same side, the CEA countries ARE NOT NATO. Would NATO hold that a use of ABC weapons against the CEA requires retaliation in kind by NATO against the USSR/WP?
no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 18:40 (UTC)But by the time of the general outbreak of war, you'd have NATO personnel in the CEA, if only the USAF flight crews bringing in aid. One Airman First Class getting caught in a chemical attack may be enough of a pretext for retaliation. Of course a clearly communicated warning from the US independent of NATO that use of NBC would trigger our retaliatory doctrine might be enough.
Then there's Walter Ulbricht, East Germany's leader at the time. By 1968 he had largely broken from Moscow due to a personal rift between him and Brezhnev. Any large scale use of chemical weapons, especially in Czechoslovakia, would inevitably have a serious impact on East Germany. The threat of yet another satellite state breaking off or withdrawing troops from the fight might be the straw that forces the Soviets to refrain from using their chemical arsenal.
Of course, the Russian attitude that the only good German is dead German could have overruled restraint.
no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 18:26 (UTC)This would become a two front war. General Abrams would be told to end this and take all of Vietnam. Once taken The US would use it as a strategic jumping off Point to attack the Easter regions of the Soviet Union.
Where this gets sticky is with China. China may take the opportunity of the escalating conquest to (re)take Mongolia and to go ahead and oust the Republic of China and take back those lands, while it's also on a land grab it may look menacingly to Japan. The US however, having a vested interest in Japan may have to stare menacingly back and allow the Chinese grab of land in exchange for not getting involved. I think Ultimately China tries to stay neutral/soviet leaning for as long as they can until they can figure out which country will be the winner.
Meanwhile in Europe NATO decides to open the floodgates and begin an invasion of Russia starting with the Eastern Block States. First to be taken would be East Germany. Once driving the Soviet's out of the heart of Europe, they would start chipping away at the buffer states and refortifying Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic.
Russia Sides with Cuba, and parks a whole lot of Nuclear warheads in Havana. The US will retaliate by blockading Cuba and opening another front there.
As far as the nuclear weapon question: I think a European power is the first to launch. Barring that, I think the Soviet Union or US would do so only in backed into a corner.
no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 18:57 (UTC)The only thing preventing these shift was concerted intervention, whether Soviet/Warsaw Pact intervention as in 1956 and 1968, a preemptive coup by the Polish military in 1981 to prevent Soviet invasion (reportedly), or the machination of Tito.
Absent Soviet occupation, there's no particular reason for Hungary to stay in the Warsaw Pact of its own will. It may well break entirely from the Warsaw Pact (Hungary wasn't very strategically located). What would happen then is open to question. Some sort of West-leaning Communism on the Yugoslavian model is possible, but in Yugoslavia Communism had indigenous credentials as the most successful resistance group in the Second World War while Hungary was forcibly Communized.
As for Czechoslovakia and Romania, who knows? After the Second World War there were never Soviet troops in occupation of Romania, while Soviet troop deployments in Czechoslovakia occurred only after 1968. An attempt to shift towards a Yugoslavian model might well work in this countries, but especially if Hungary rapidly shifts towards western European norms like Austria the Soviet Union may be twitchy. Will it risk a general war to prevent their defection?
no subject
Date: 18 Jul 2011 01:33 (UTC)no subject
Date: 24 Jul 2011 05:24 (UTC)no subject
Date: 17 Jul 2011 21:18 (UTC)OTOH, I'm not including the situation in the Far East into the consideration. So it'd all depend on how Brezhnev decides to balance the Soviet forces.
What I do see happening is a series of decapitating strike against the CEA leaders, either by KGB operatives and Soviet sympathizers. Or, even a Spetsnaz or VDV raid similar to the attack on Tajbeg Palace in Afghanistan in 1979.
no subject
Date: 18 Jul 2011 00:09 (UTC)However, I don't think any F-4 based Wild Weasels were in action until 1969, at least in US Service, and no German F-4's until 1969 (with the initial batch being unarmed recon variants).
It is an alternate timeline, however, and the effects of the alternate timeline on the Far East (which prompted development of the Wild Weasel type aircraft) might "run a little ahead" in that timeline...
However, it does bring the question in about the Vietnam War (and associated hardware and tactical developments). The actions in Europe and the Soviet Union<->China relationship might also have an impact on either/or cooperation in Indochina...
Does China sit this one out? Take advantage of Soviet distraction to go for the gusto in Indochina?
no subject
Date: 18 Jul 2011 04:11 (UTC)Prague Spring, Summer War
Date: 19 Jul 2011 18:19 (UTC)